Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe904…44e9 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,334 (+4%) realized +$1,252 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%109W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,700
7 days−$1,022
14 days−$1,010
30 days+$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$835
other 34% +$2,056
world 1% −$32
crypto 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -6.3% -15.2% 46% 44% -17.1%
≤30d 207 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 45% -5.5%
≤90d 207 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 45% -5.5%
all 207 -2.7% -12.0% 53% 45% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 45% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 40% -14.6%
15% -28.1% 34% -22.8%
20% -35.1% 30% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$79 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$3,291
Realized+$1,252
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses109 / 98
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions28
Markets (closed)207 / 235
History coverage28d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic Aryna Sabalenka 94¢ 94¢ $611 $614 +$3 (+1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Over 45¢ 46¢ $333 $334 +$1 (+0%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 93¢ 94¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Shevchenko Felix Auger-Aliassime 93¢ 94¢ $232 $236 +$4 (+2%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Alex de Minaur 93¢ 94¢ $232 $234 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 69¢ 70¢ $212 $216 +$3 (+2%)
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova Karolina Muchova 85¢ 84¢ $212 $211 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 57¢ $171 $172 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 43¢ 48¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+10%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi Ethan Quinn 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 58¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+6%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 58¢ $27 $47 +$20 (+72%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? No 52¢ 52¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 66¢ $24 $40 +$16 (+65%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 36¢ $16 $36 +$20 (+125%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 53¢ 54¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic Jun 29 $163 +$37 +23%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 29 $231 +$19 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $128 +$53 +41%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $16 +$41 +251%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $49 +$37 +75%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $128 +$61 +48%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $4,728 +$1,299 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $207 +$59 +28%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $48 +$36 +75%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $84 −$18 -22%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $30 +$42 +140%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $79 −$7 -9%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $24 +$37 +150%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $31 +$15 +49%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $44 +$16 +36%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $55 −$8 -14%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $309 +$189 +61%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $57 +$125 +221%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 +$20 +56%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $47 +$10 +20%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $8 +$21 +257%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $42 −$9 -23%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $85 −$23 -26%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $43 −$18 -42%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $199 −$196 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 +$16 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $14 +$15 +108%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $102 +$30 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$8 -19%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 +$16 +75%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $113 +$21 +18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $55 +$13 +23%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $25 +$5 +21%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $42 +$8 +18%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$36 +120%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 53¢ $20 23m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $2 54m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Ethan Quinn 62¢ $63 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $93 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $8 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Shevchenko BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 93¢ $233 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $173 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $21 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $3 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Francesca Jones vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 74¢ $75 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $13 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $31 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $21 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Japan 69¢ $125 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 52¢ $42 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $41 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,291.15 · official $3,291.17 (match) · 907 history records