Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe905…ab4b world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 20% −$25
politics 18% $0
sports 11% +$10
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.4% -7.3% 67% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 32 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 78 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 1% -9.5%
all 95 -2.6% -11.9% 41% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 56
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage537d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $1 $0 +14%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $53 +$1 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $185 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $166 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $37 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $35 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $42 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $75 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $31 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $38 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records