Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe906…db88 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$289 (+7%) realized +$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%30W / 16L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$252
14 days+$268
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$24
sports 37% +$190
crypto 17% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.8% -20.2% 72% 34% -3.9%
≤30d 46 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 41% -3.7%
≤90d 46 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 41% -3.7%
all 46 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 41% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 41% -3.7%
10% -16.6% 35% -12.9%
15% -24.7% 30% -21.3%
20% -32.1% 20% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses30 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage14d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Türkiye 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $500 +$2 +0%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $150 +$9 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 25 $500 +$12 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $200 +$4 +2%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $501 +$145 +29%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $300 +$6 +2%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $201 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $220 +$15 +7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $27 +$20 +74%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $211 +$58 +27%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $631 +$75 +12%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $19 −$10 -52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$8 -37%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 +$11 +40%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +272%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$8 +325%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 56¢ $10 4m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 56¢ $10 5m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 9h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 94¢ $100 10h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 94¢ $50 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 27h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Brazil 98¢ $500 33h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 47h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 92¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $200 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
England leading at halftime? AND Portugal leading at halftime? BUY 43¢ $10 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $501 3d
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Spain leading at halftime? AND Belgium leading at halftime? BUY 39¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $206 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $20 4d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $235 5d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 93¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 94¢ $200 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.82 · official $19.82 (match) · 102 history records