Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E9
0xe90f…131e
world · 218 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$190 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$177 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,521
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses55 / 84
Open positions79
Markets (closed)139 / 218
History coverage51d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 79 History 139 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$81
14 days−$121
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $563 $565 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? No 76¢ 100¢ $53 $70 +$16 (+31%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 19¢ $58 $41 −$17 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 57¢ $43 $39 −$4 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $19 $25 +$7 (+37%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 2¢ 33¢ $1 $25 +$24 (+1655%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 91¢ 92¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 92¢ 99¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 75¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 32¢ 52¢ $12 $20 +$7 (+61%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+40%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $5 $14 +$10 (+213%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 90¢ 91¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$7 -26%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $9 −$3 -38%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $609 +$43 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $57 −$9 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $61 +$19 +31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $53 −$4 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $28 −$5 -18%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +257%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$3 -33%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 09 $14 +$1 +8%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$13 +376%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 09 $24 +$2 +6%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $288 +$30 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 09 $368 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 09 $78 −$6 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,315 −$16 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$5 -68%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $646 −$59 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $18 −$11 -60%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $19 −$14 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$10 -59%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $698 +$17 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $46 +$13 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $29 −$14 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 29 $49 −$16 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 79% −$152
crypto 9% +$6
politics 8% −$31
other 2% −$7
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% −$6
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 19m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $8 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 20m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $15 21m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 22m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 23m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 89¢ $5 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -23.6% -30.9% 37% 11% -11.9%
≤30d 111 -21.3% -28.8% 41% 13% -11.9%
≤90d 139 -22.0% -29.5% 40% 14% -12.0%
all 139 -22.0% -29.5% 40% 14% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 14% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 11% -20.4%
15% -42.4% 6% -28.1%
20% -48.0% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,521.34 · official $1,518.82 (match) · 2729 history records