Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe912…a7f8 crypto 646 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$310 (+3%) realized +$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%278W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days−$206
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$142
sports 2% −$8
other 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -11.3% -19.8% 11% 1% -21.0%
≤30d 137 -11.3% -19.8% 11% 1% -21.0%
≤90d 645 -4.7% -13.7% 43% 30% -11.3%
all 645 -4.7% -13.7% 43% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 30% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 20% -19.8%
15% -29.5% 9% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses278 / 367
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)645 / 646
History coverage70d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$91 -88%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -19%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -21%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$9 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 3m
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 53¢ $3 10m
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You SELL Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 69¢ $9 10m
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B SELL No 74¢ $10 10m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 78¢ $10 10m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $11 10m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 84¢ $11 10m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? SELL No 92¢ $12 10m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $12 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 2411 history records