Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
E9 0xe913…7793 sports 17 markets active 12h ago coverage 182d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,779 (+20%) realized +$2,911 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$818per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$2,592
14 days+$2,592
30 days+$2,592
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$382
tech 19% +$316
world 13% +$2,210
other 8% −$72
politics 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 42% +13.9%
≤30d 12 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 42% +13.9%
≤90d 12 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 42% +13.9%
all 15 +23.6% +11.9% 93% 47% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 47% +10.6%
10% +1.1% 33% -0.0%
15% -8.6% 27% -9.7%
20% -17.6% 20% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$74 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.13 per $1 lost it wins $40.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized+$2,911
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage182d
Avg bet$818
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $850 $718 −$132 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $143 +$11 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,912 +$84 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $482 +$14 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $489 +$111 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $970 +$29 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $215 +$11 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,942 +$55 +2%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 +$34 +148%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $16 +$9 +54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,770 +$2,210 +125%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $300 +$61 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 20 $2,638 +$316 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $154 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $143 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $14 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 99¢ $14 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,996 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $496 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $2,912 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $482 36h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $599 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $489 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $999 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 97¢ $146 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 97¢ $824 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $177 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $215 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,997 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $2,942 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 82¢ $21 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Qatar 82¢ $53 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $6 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $6 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $4 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 67¢ $34 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $22 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 13¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.50 · official $717.50 (match) · 187 history records