Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe917…9d8e crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$10
other 3% +$16
world 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 39% -8.8%
≤30d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 39% -8.8%
≤90d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 39% -8.8%
all 28 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 39% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 25% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 21% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 64¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 42¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $93 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $87 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$26 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $32 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $37 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.91 · official $18.91 (match) · 89 history records