Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe91a…a967 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$2
world 18% $0
politics 12% −$2
crypto 12% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 5 +0.7% -8.8% 40% 0% -9.1%
all 39 -5.1% -14.2% 28% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -10.7%
10% -22.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.1%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage452d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 28 $4 $0 -11%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 27 $8 +$1 +17%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 9–16? May 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 09 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $21 29m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $29 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $8 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $37 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $15 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $9 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 21d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 361d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 373d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL No 32¢ $4 390d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY No 36¢ $4 390d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 390d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.10 · official $15.10 (match) · 129 history records