Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe91b…fb2a weather 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-54%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -97% what you keep after slip
Net edge-97%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$76
weather 15% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 30 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -69.8%
≤90d 30 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -69.8%
all 30 -96.8% -97.1% 0% 0% -69.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.1% 0% -69.8%
10% -97.4% 0% -72.7%
15% -97.6% 0% -75.3%
20% -97.9% 0% -77.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 17 $53 −$2 -3%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $16 −$15 -99%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $28 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $53 2d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 40¢ $4 14d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $21 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? BUY No $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No $1 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 2? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? BUY No $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1? BUY No $1 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? BUY No $1 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 30? BUY No $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $30.23 (match) · 37 history records