Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe91e…9ea8 sports 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$100 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$79
14 days−$109
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$100
other 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 8% -15.2%
≤30d 28 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 11% -15.2%
≤90d 28 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 11% -15.2%
all 28 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 11% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 11% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 11% -23.3%
15% -33.6% 7% -30.7%
20% -40.1% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage15d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Team Nemesis $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $243 +$17 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $152 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $518 −$16 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $665 −$49 -7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $240 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $153 −$9 -6%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $26 −$5 -19%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $67 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $96 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $24 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $35 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $35 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $12 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $45 −$10 -23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $27 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $36 −$12 -33%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $12 +$1 +7%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $22 −$12 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $60 −$13 -21%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $58 −$8 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis $0 28m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis $1 28m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 27¢ $16 41m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 27¢ $6 41m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $18 42m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 56¢ $23 53m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 58¢ $25 53m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 45¢ $1 58m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 97¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 97¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 97¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 90¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 89¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 76¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 71¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 67¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 67¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE $2 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE $1 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 88¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 88¢ $11 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 454 history records