Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe922…ab1e other 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$37 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%75W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$18
14 days+$20
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$129
other 30% +$16
crypto 23% +$46
politics 8% +$49
world 3% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +9.5% -0.9% 68% 62% -5.6%
≤30d 68 +10.6% +0.1% 59% 53% -8.6%
≤90d 103 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 39% -38.0%
all 157 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 43% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 36% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 33% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 29% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses75 / 82
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 166
History coverage615d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $18 +$3 +14%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +89%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a dr Jun 27 $8 +$17 +213%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $9 +$9 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +152%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$18 +595%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $24 −$6 -26%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $3 +$14 +393%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 3¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $22 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 15h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 24h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 6¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a dr BUY 31¢ $8 38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $17 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 16¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. Mex BUY 10¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.23 · official $36.23 (match) · 407 history records