Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe925…f4e9 crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$110 (+18%) realized +$70 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$79
politics 13% +$33
sports 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +42.9% +29.3% 33% 29% +3.6%
≤30d 24 +42.9% +29.3% 33% 29% +3.6%
≤90d 24 +42.9% +29.3% 33% 29% +3.6%
all 24 +42.9% +29.3% 33% 29% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.3% 29% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here +16.9% 29% -6.3%
15% +5.6% 29% -15.4%
20% -4.7% 29% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$15 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 6¢ $70 $103 +$33 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 25¢ 46¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+84%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$78 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $116 −$66 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$45 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $33 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$49 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 51m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $42 55m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.29 · official $138.70 · 78 history records