Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe92a…4764 sports 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-17%) realized −$114 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$70
14 days−$79
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$75
other 10% −$12
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 39% -25.3%
≤30d 70 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 40% -27.7%
≤90d 70 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 40% -27.7%
all 100 -5.3% -14.3% 43% 43% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 43% -22.5%
10% -22.5% 43% -29.9%
15% -30.0% 43% -36.7%
20% -36.8% 31% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 57
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage151d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$13 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$10 -66%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$8 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 −$3 -37%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ assists Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $22 +$9 +39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +416%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 +$5 +65%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $36 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $9 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $12 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $2 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $6 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $1.25 (match) · 188 history records