Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe92c…d27e other 712 markets active 4h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,098 (-8%) realized −$21,098 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%494W / 218L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$685
14 days−$412
30 days−$1,857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18,285
sports 38% −$2,148
crypto 2% −$657
world 0% +$29
culture 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -3.9% -13.1% 78% 53% -14.4%
≤30d 87 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 57% -17.9%
≤90d 126 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 60% -15.2%
all 712 -4.8% -13.9% 69% 42% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 42% -16.7%
10% -22.1% 23% -24.7%
15% -29.6% 14% -32.0%
20% -36.5% 10% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$270 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21,098
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses494 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)712 / 712
History coverage233d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 712 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $201 +$54 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,003 +$99 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $501 +$42 +8%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $502 +$79 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$19 +18%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $201 −$124 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$12 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $77 +$15 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,003 +$99 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $999 +$120 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $97 +$31 +32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 +$11 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $94 +$19 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $96 +$80 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $38 +$4 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$13 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $976 +$32 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,001 −$998 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$40 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $100 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 8h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Scotland 100¢ $543 8h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Scotland 92¢ $501 9h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 67¢ $101 33h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $50 34h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 95¢ $100 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 35h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $100 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 91¢ $100 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 70¢ $75 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 36h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 92¢ $100 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $502 39h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $200 39h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 88¢ $50 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $110 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $119 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $77 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1417 history records