Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe92f…4d2d world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 19% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -0.9% -10.4% 60% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage468d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $50 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Dec 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $12 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 05 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 05 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Did Kamala buy ads on Majority Report? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on March 20? Mar 21 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $50 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $51 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $19 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.87 · official $44.73 (match) · 123 history records