Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe930…5ccc other 1044 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1039W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$8
sports 45% +$6
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 205 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 844 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 1043 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1039 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1043 / 1044
History coverage118d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dune Vaissaud vs. Josephine Kunz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Vasiliauskas vs Gokpinar Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Tepmahc vs. Kamboj: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Sickenberger vs. Majdandzic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: DRG (-1.5) vs Talent Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Fernandes vs. Ivashka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Kenzhibayeva vs. Markina: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Ferro vs Rocchetti Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Golas vs Frodin Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Guna vs. Cazacu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Romano Schmid: 1+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Kaegi (-1.5) vs Stusek (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Paul Wanner: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Samrej vs. Lim: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Chen vs Oh Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Logan Gilbert: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Webb vs. Uemura: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Warren Zaïre-Emery: 2+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - Asia P Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ben Waine: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 4+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saleh Al Shehri: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ziyad Al Johani: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Eric García: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ellyes Skhiri: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Evann Guessand: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Teun Koopmeiners: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Juninho Bacuna: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Daizen Maeda: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Takefusa Kubo: 3+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dune Vaissaud vs. Josephine Kunz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $4 3m
Set 2 Winner: Vasiliauskas vs Gokpinar BUY Vasiliauskas 100¢ $5 1h
Tepmahc vs. Kamboj: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 1h
Padula vs. Jamshidi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 2h
Sickenberger vs. Majdandzic: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Fernandes vs. Ivashka: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Yes 100¢ $4 3h
Kenzhibayeva vs. Markina: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Set 2 Winner: Ferro vs Rocchetti BUY Rocchetti 100¢ $4 4h
Krawietz/Puetz vs. Galloway/Peers: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Game Handicap: DRG (-1.5) vs Talent Gaming (+1.5) BUY Talent Gaming 98¢ $5 5h
Masiianskaia vs. Lee: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Golas vs Frodin BUY Frodin 100¢ $5 5h
Guna vs. Cazacu: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Romano Schmid: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6h
Set Handicap: Kaegi (-1.5) vs Stusek (+1.5) BUY Stusek 100¢ $4 6h
Paul Wanner: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Odeh Fakhoury: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Samrej vs. Lim: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Set 2 Winner: Chen vs Oh BUY Oh 100¢ $5 10h
Mike Trout: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 11h
Logan Gilbert: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 12h
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Webb vs. Uemura: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 13h
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.98 (match) · 2340 history records