Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe933…5591 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$102 (-7%) realized −$115 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%9W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +32.1% +19.6% 17% 17% +15.0%
≤30d 53 +32.1% +19.6% 17% 17% +15.0%
≤90d 53 +32.1% +19.6% 17% 17% +15.0%
all 53 +32.1% +19.6% 17% 17% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.6% 17% +15.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.1% 15% +4.0%
15% -2.3% 15% -6.0%
20% -11.9% 13% -15.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$22 · ×6.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses9 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 23¢ 60¢ $20 $53 +$33 (+163%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$16 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$293 +1465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$43 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$188 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$274 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$36 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$40 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$40 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$76 +763%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$60 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$447 +2236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $22 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $75 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $232 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $22 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $22 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $356 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.13 · official $370.78 · 84 history records