Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe937…d46a other 444 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,513 (+27%) realized +$10,714 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%189W / 242L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,153
7 days+$3,778
14 days+$3,209
30 days+$3,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$6,936
world 24% +$2,977
sports 10% −$1,439
crypto 5% +$69
politics 5% +$1,557
tech 4% +$328
economics 2% $0
culture 0% −$53
weather 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.6% +3.7% 44% 44% +75.8%
≤30d 76 +17.9% +6.7% 33% 33% +40.0%
≤90d 209 +3.3% -6.5% 40% 36% +15.7%
all 431 +13.3% +2.5% 44% 38% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 38% +15.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 34% +4.6%
15% -16.3% 29% -5.5%
20% -24.5% 24% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$38 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized+$10,714
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses189 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions13
Markets (closed)431 / 444
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $396 $333 −$64 (-16%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 21¢ 26¢ $139 $175 +$37 (+26%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 21¢ 19¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 10¢ $176 $74 −$102 (-58%)
Will Trump post "Soccer" on Truth Social this week? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $31 $56 +$25 (+82%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+27%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 22¢ 6¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-73%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $47 $7 −$41 (-86%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-74%)
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 15, 8PM ET? No 1¢ 12¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1150%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+70%)
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 15, 8PM ET? No 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 15, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $16 +$34 +222%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $124 +$122 +98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $180 +$692 +384%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will Mark Flekken be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +13%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $434 −$10 -2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $110 +$27 +24%
Will Donyell Malen be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $351 +$194 +55%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +45%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 14 $49 +$251 +512%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 13 $29 +$8 +29%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 13 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 12 $29 +$8 +27%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $86 +$13 +15%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $97 +$39 +40%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $178 +$160 +89%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $74 −$7 -9%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $29 −$5 -17%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,454 +$2,733 +188%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 04 $179 −$59 -33%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum above 2,000 on May 29, 4AM ET? Jun 02 $38 −$38 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 02 $262 −$252 -96%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $201 −$201 -100%
Critical Discord Incident by June 30? Jun 02 $90 +$44 +49%
COD Meknès vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $8 +$12 +148%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $61 +$60 +99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $34 +$39 +116%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt vs. Russia: Both Teams to Score May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $93 −$8 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 28 $39 +$22 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 15, 8PM ET? BUY No 1¢ $0 16m
Ethereum above 1,760 on June 15, 8PM ET? BUY No 3¢ $0 21m
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 15, 7PM ET? SELL No 100¢ $50 22m
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 15, 7PM ET? BUY No 31¢ $16 24m
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $162 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $18 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $108 2h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $20 5h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $34 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $88 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $91 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $702 9h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $104 11h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $17 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 18h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 18h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 22h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 23h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $28 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.93 · official $791.93 (match) · 3500 history records