Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe938…82d8 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$67 (-13%) realized −$61 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$59
sports 36% −$8
crypto 9% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 25% -27.6%
≤30d 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 25% -27.6%
≤90d 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 25% -27.6%
all 12 -26.8% -33.8% 33% 25% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 25% -27.6%
10% -40.1% 25% -34.6%
15% -45.9% 25% -40.9%
20% -51.2% 25% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$26 -52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +210%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$38 -77%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$27 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $63 +$33 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$37 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 51m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 53m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 53m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 44h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $63 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.71 · official $22.92 · 24 history records