Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E9
0xe939…bb38
other · 54 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage439d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 17 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 11 $26 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 9? May 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? May 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $7 $0 -4%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 26 $2 $0 +26%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 25 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 23 $24 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $1 $0 +9%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$3
world 32% $0
politics 26% +$4
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $21 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $10 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $6 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $25 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $21 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.5% -8.1% 56% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 10% -9.2%
all 52 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -8.9%
10% -16.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.32 · official $5.22 (match) · 147 history records