Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E9 0xe944…d338 other 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL −$87 (-5%) realized −$107 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$38
14 days+$25
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$210
sports 24% +$317
crypto 12% −$93
world 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +12.2% +1.5% 40% 40% -12.4%
≤30d 73 +23.4% +11.6% 40% 40% -7.7%
≤90d 73 +23.4% +11.6% 40% 40% -7.7%
all 73 +23.4% +11.6% 40% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 40% -7.7%
10% +1.0% 40% -16.5%
15% -8.8% 40% -24.6%
20% -17.7% 37% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)73 / 98
History coverage17d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $38 $47 +$9 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+122%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-42%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$14 +266%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$25 +64%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 −$7 -22%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$36 +180%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$53 +173%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $7 +$37 +510%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 +$19 +67%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $52 +$22 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$33 +93%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$6 -59%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 +$47 +268%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 23 $11 +$66 +582%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$61 +124%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $13 +$49 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$23 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL 99¢ $65 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg SELL 7¢ $4 4h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 59¢ $40 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 36¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 42¢ $25 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.92 · official $128.07 (match) · 187 history records