Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe947…7a45 politics 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 563d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,958 (+2%) realized +$5,358 · open −$400
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%339W / 270L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 564d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$10,022
world 16% +$3,188
other 13% +$1,499
crypto 0% +$185
sports 0% −$56
economics 0% −$94
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$23
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +81.4% +64.1% 80% 80% +117.5%
≤30d 31 +15.6% +4.6% 58% 52% -13.6%
≤90d 104 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 50% -14.2%
all 609 +4.3% -5.7% 56% 43% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 43% -2.4%
10% -14.7% 32% -11.8%
15% -22.9% 26% -20.3%
20% -30.5% 19% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$75 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$5,565
Realized+$5,358
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses339 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions72
Markets (closed)609 / 682
History coverage564d ⚠
Avg bet$304
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 609 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 66¢ 82¢ $1,195 $1,487 +$292 (+24%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 83¢ $1,109 $1,311 +$203 (+18%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 56¢ 63¢ $388 $435 +$47 (+12%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $372 $412 +$41 (+11%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 87¢ $75 $167 +$92 (+123%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $145 $149 +$4 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026? No 59¢ 55¢ $146 $135 −$11 (-8%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 58¢ 60¢ $115 $117 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 49¢ 42¢ $116 $100 −$16 (-14%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 73¢ 86¢ $84 $98 +$14 (+17%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 54¢ $110 $97 −$13 (-12%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 36¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $71 $76 +$4 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $83 $73 −$10 (-12%)
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ $853 $68 −$785 (-92%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 59¢ 55¢ $61 $57 −$4 (-7%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 65¢ 70¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+8%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+22%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+26%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 17¢ 99¢ $5 $30 +$25 (+494%)
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes 70¢ 47¢ $37 $25 −$12 (-33%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 23 $98 +$253 +258%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 21 $3 +$3 +116%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 21 $12 +$8 +70%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 21 $70 +$44 +63%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme Jun 08 $25 −$9 -35%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 08 $19 +$3 +18%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Jun 04 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races? Jun 04 $5 +$7 +161%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,288 +$142 +11%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $221 +$56 +25%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $742 +$73 +10%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $2,225 +$1,080 +48%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $6,559 −$2,024 -31%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 03 $79 −$41 -52%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $151 −$59 -39%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $9 +$3 +39%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $15 −$10 -69%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $28 −$15 -52%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $71 −$53 -74%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 03 $161 −$1 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 01 $25 −$1 -4%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 01 $7 +$4 +64%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 01 $11 +$6 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 01 $82 +$110 +134%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen Jun 01 $38 +$30 +79%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? May 20 $149 +$54 +36%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? May 20 $349 +$163 +47%
WTT - Men's Singles: Japan vs China May 19 $35 −$25 -72%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 19 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 19 $3 +$9 +288%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $74 +$28 +38%
Will Ras Baraka win the Newark mayoral election? May 11 $104 +$14 +13%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 10 $7 −$7 -98%
WTT - Men's Singles: China vs France May 10 $18 −$15 -86%
WTT - Women's Singles: China vs Japan May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections May 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following th May 08 $89 +$8 +9%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $34 +$9 +26%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 07 $93 −$10 -10%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 07 $145 +$8 +6%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 05 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $212 −$152 -72%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $161 −$91 -57%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in April? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 50¢ $12 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 65¢ $43 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $167 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 2h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 81¢ $115 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $329 2h
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $18 2d
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $53 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $71 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $22 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $248 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 2d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $60 2d
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 2d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 14d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 14d
Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 14d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 15d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 30¢ $10 15d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 37¢ $14 15d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 38¢ $3 15d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 57¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,564.89 · official $5,576.34 (match) · 3500 history records