Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe949…6010 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$186 (+5%) realized +$173 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$154
14 days+$154
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$92
other 48% +$84
world 3% +$8
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.0% -12.3% 62% 38% -4.2%
≤30d 17 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 41% -4.0%
≤90d 17 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 41% -4.0%
all 17 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 41% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 41% -4.0%
10% -17.1% 24% -13.2%
15% -25.2% 18% -21.6%
20% -32.5% 6% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage53d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $365 −$57 -16%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 17 $114 −$6 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$6 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $908 +$147 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $97 +$10 +11%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $300 +$25 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $9 +$6 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap SELL No 65¢ $42 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 68¢ $75 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $94 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $100 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 11h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $319 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 12h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 77¢ $50 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 13h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $301 14h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 17h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 73¢ $51 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 16¢ $10 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $10 25h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 21¢ $10 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 25¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 29h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $56 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $698.01 · official $698.02 (match) · 88 history records