Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe94b…5abe finance 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$41,897 (-22%) realized −$39,282 · open −$2,615
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%154W / 525L
Whale WR26%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 68% −$17,267
crypto 12% +$821
sports 9% −$2,484
world 7% −$2,167
other 2% +$2,554
politics 1% −$802
tech 1% −$335
economics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 -27.4% -34.3% 13% 13% -74.2%
≤30d 465 -22.5% -29.8% 18% 17% -63.5%
≤90d 679 -17.5% -25.4% 23% 21% -45.9%
all 679 -17.5% -25.4% 23% 21% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 21% -45.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 19% -51.1%
15% -39.0% 17% -55.8%
20% -45.0% 14% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 26% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$392 vs −$281 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$5,524
Realized−$39,282
Unrealized−$2,615
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses154 / 525
Whale WR (big bets)26%
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions33
Markets (closed)679 / 354
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$543
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 10¢ $1,433 $1,140 −$293 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 13¢ 44¢ $333 $1,139 +$806 (+242%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $557 $535 −$22 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $184 $346 +$161 (+87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 9¢ $91 $345 +$254 (+279%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $257 $300 +$43 (+17%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 50¢ 44¢ $328 $292 −$36 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $241 $261 +$19 (+8%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $208 $210 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $837 $162 −$675 (-81%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $873 $157 −$716 (-82%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 34¢ 100¢ $32 $93 +$62 (+193%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $85 $77 −$8 (-9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $214 $73 −$141 (-66%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $453 $73 −$381 (-84%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $347 $64 −$284 (-82%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $59 $44 −$16 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $59 $41 −$18 (-30%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 0¢ 1¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+225%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $395 $32 −$363 (-92%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $250 $14 −$236 (-94%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 73¢ 3¢ $206 $9 −$197 (-96%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $86 $9 −$77 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 467 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Jun 17 $521 −$521 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Jun 17 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 29? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 14? Jun 17 $368 −$368 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 8? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 19? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 5? Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 8? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 1? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 20-26? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 10? Jun 17 $4 +$1,258 +28204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jun 17 $71 +$69 +96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 12? Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 17 $39 +$26 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on December 2 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Jun 17 $31 +$38 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5PM ET Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 9? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Solana dip to $130 November 10-16? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $176 −$176 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 9-15? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 12? Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 10? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 26? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 20? Jun 17 $12 +$25 +210%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 5? Jun 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 31? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 20? Jun 17 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 5? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 17 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Jun 17 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Jun 17 $2,192 −$2,151 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 15? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 11? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on November 13? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jun 17 $418 −$418 -100%
1,475+ Measles cases in U.S. by September 30? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 November 10-16? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Jun 17 $63 −$22 -35%
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 7? Jun 17 $611 −$611 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 88¢ $289 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 40¢ $620 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 40¢ $412 7m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 96¢ $175 26m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 97¢ $97 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $119 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $4 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $9 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $10 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 77¢ $8 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 79¢ $132 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $130 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $28 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 50¢ $68 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 0¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,523.55 · official $5,497.42 (match) · 3500 history records