Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E9 0xe94c…1ede sports 693 markets active 2d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,418 (-5%) realized −$12,418 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%332W / 378L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$2,308est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$771
7 days−$1,084
14 days−$6,821
30 days−$6,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$9,473
other 31% +$29
world 2% −$650
politics 0% +$460
crypto 0% +$971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -73.7% -76.2% 8% 4% -20.4%
≤30d 425 -8.2% -17.0% 46% 45% -12.4%
≤90d 710 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -12.9%
all 710 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 46% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 46% -21.2%
15% -31.5% 43% -28.8%
20% -38.2% 41% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$328 vs −$313 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$12,418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses332 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)710 / 693
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$339
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 710 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Jun 17 $0 −$111 -23640%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 17 $0 −$77 -18048%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $0 −$45 -9290%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 17 $0 −$49 -13950%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 Jun 17 $0 −$42 -11827%
Kings vs. Avalanche Jun 17 $0 −$31 -6427%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 17 $0 −$42 -12655%
CA Mineiro vs. CA Juventud: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$27 -9403%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $0 −$15 -17300%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 17 $0 −$8 -12781%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Jun 17 $0 −$28 -13154%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Jun 17 $0 −$39 -16286%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-04-14? Jun 17 $0 −$37 -22498%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $0 −$27 -9671%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Jun 17 $0 −$56 -11265%
LoL: Dignitas vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Jun 17 $0 −$48 -17130%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 −$22 -5834%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$67 -12466%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$500 +125%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $117 +$1 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $54 −$5 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $170 −$126 -74%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 15 $406 −$12 -3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $711 −$143 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $390 −$360 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $400 −$169 -42%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $528 +$512 +97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $400 +$303 +76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $400 +$271 +68%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $412 −$412 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $407 +$482 +119%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $406 +$445 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $408 −$408 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $405 −$405 -100%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $405 +$297 +73%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $406 +$335 +83%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $403 +$556 +138%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $404 +$230 +57%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $406 +$394 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $406 −$406 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $406 +$378 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $677 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $223 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 61¢ $118 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 47¢ $43 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 48¢ $6 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No $19 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No $25 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $394 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL St. Louis Cardinals 38¢ $561 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL St. Louis Cardinals 39¢ $7 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $21 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $4 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $231 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 57¢ $400 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 60¢ $400 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 44¢ $400 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $406 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 47¢ $406 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 35¢ $408 9d
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 54¢ $406 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $405 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 46¢ $406 9d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 53¢ $406 9d
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 57¢ $405 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $406 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 47¢ $406 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $220 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $173 10d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 42¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records