Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe950…0f89 weather 290 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$35 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate86%242W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$109
14 days−$117
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -5.3% -14.3% 81% 40% -15.5%
≤30d 282 -1.7% -11.1% 86% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 282 -1.7% -11.1% 86% 39% -11.2%
all 282 -1.7% -11.1% 86% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 39% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 7% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 2% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses242 / 40
Open positions8
Markets (closed)282 / 290
History coverage15d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? No 84¢ 86¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? No 87¢ 87¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? No 92¢ 93¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? No 87¢ 83¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? No 89¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 93¢ 14¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? No 93¢ 7¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $13 18m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $20 25m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $11 48m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $12 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.24 · official $132.98 (match) · 742 history records