trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 95¢ | 99¢ | $199,576 | $209,815 | +$10,240 (+5%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $141,434 | $142,402 | +$968 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 03 | $564,953 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $138,650 | +$11,830 | +8% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 19 | $250,385 | $0 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 18 | $227,199 | +$23,186 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? | Mar 18 | $7,149 | −$7,149 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $83,518 | +$13,675 | +16% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $150,811 | +$32,627 | +22% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | Nov 13 | $3,280 | +$720 | +22% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 30 | $49,991 | +$7,166 | +14% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Oct 03 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -16.3% | -24.2% | 40% | 0% | -7.4% |
| all | 10 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 60% | 40% | -4.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -10.2% | 40% | -4.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -18.8% | 0% | -13.6% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -22.0% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -29.6% |