Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe953…a4f9 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$261 (-3%) realized −$393 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%49W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$437
7 days+$217
14 days+$204
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$109
politics 33% −$29
crypto 16% −$363
world 3% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.4% -38.9% 28% 17% +4.0%
≤30d 30 -32.7% -39.1% 27% 20% -0.2%
≤90d 143 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 28% -14.1%
all 148 -29.5% -36.3% 33% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 29% -13.8%
10% -42.4% 22% -22.1%
15% -47.9% 17% -29.6%
20% -53.0% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$27 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$393
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses49 / 99
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 152
History coverage97d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $256 $0 −$256 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -86%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $93 −$85 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$28 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $126 −$59 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $125 −$96 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $58 −$24 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $135 +$265 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $171 +$47 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $243 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $150 +$349 +232%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $81 +$1 +1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 08 $113 −$15 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $41 −$31 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $24 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $56 +$82 +147%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $38 −$4 -10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? Jun 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $114 +$33 +29%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 16 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $60 −$56 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $18 +$78 +436%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $274 −$239 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $63 −$53 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $43 −$28 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $14 −$14 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $90 +$37 +41%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1 May 01 $75 +$20 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $16 +$60 +383%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $50 −$19 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $42 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 20h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 20h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 21h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 21h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 21h
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.85 · official $30.85 (match) · 1085 history records