Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe955…fcae sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$339 (+6%) realized +$209 · open +$130
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$238
7 days−$238
14 days−$238
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$189
other 32% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.7% -36.4% 0% 0% -18.4%
≤30d 6 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 33% -8.2%
≤90d 12 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 33% -8.1%
all 12 -16.5% -24.4% 33% 33% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 33% -8.1%
10% -31.6% 33% -16.9%
15% -38.2% 17% -24.9%
20% -44.3% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$38 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1,700
Realized+$209
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage44d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $947 $940 −$7 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $400 $469 +$69 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $223 $291 +$68 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 20 $2,230 −$127 -6%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $207 −$111 -54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1,464 +$328 +22%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $187 −$47 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $41 +$19 +45%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 20 $1 $0 +26%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 −$13 -50%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $10 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $22 −$1 -3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $20 +$20 +100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $968 2h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 73¢ $965 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 11h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 7d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 84¢ $35 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $71 8d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 81¢ $71 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $87 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $141 9d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $403 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $101 11d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 80¢ $102 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $93 14d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $38 16d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 76¢ $73 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 17d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $50 20d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,150 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,147 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $764 20d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 79¢ $767 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $60 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 48¢ $59 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $52 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,700.48 · official $1,700.48 (match) · 73 history records