Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E9 0xe95a…0206 crypto 1423 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%733W / 689L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$26
14 days−$37
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$545
other 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 67% -10.9%
≤30d 495 -2.5% -11.8% 66% 64% -11.4%
≤90d 914 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 56% -13.3%
all 1422 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 51% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 51% -16.1%
10% -23.7% 45% -24.1%
15% -31.0% 34% -31.5%
20% -37.8% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses733 / 689
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1422 / 1423
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -64%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +149%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 51m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.42 · official $99.42 (match) · 3500 history records