Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E9 0xe95e…61f2 other 778 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 620d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$4,419 · open +$4,356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%490W / 202L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$799per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$74,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 621d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$7,954
tech 15% +$1,828
world 8% −$1,470
politics 4% −$3,830
crypto 3% −$135
weather 2% −$146
sports 1% +$193
finance 1% −$247
culture 1% +$99
economics 0% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.5% +20.8% 65% 41% -1.8%
≤30d 69 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 25% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 25% -9.3%
all 692 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 21% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 15% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 10% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$210 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$74,718
Realized−$4,419
Unrealized+$4,356
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses490 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions80
Markets (closed)692 / 778
History coverage621d ⚠
Avg bet$799
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $7,252 $7,763 +$511 (+7%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 86¢ 91¢ $4,931 $5,220 +$288 (+6%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 51¢ 74¢ $3,329 $4,876 +$1,547 (+46%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,692 $4,704 +$12 (+0%)
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 No 85¢ 86¢ $4,416 $4,509 +$92 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 84¢ $3,865 $4,494 +$629 (+16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,185 $3,215 +$31 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,587 $2,646 +$60 (+2%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 62¢ $2,098 $2,207 +$110 (+5%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $1,962 $2,098 +$136 (+7%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $1,724 $1,858 +$134 (+8%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,552 $1,603 +$51 (+3%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,387 $1,524 +$138 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,285 $1,305 +$20 (+2%)
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No 73¢ 71¢ $1,342 $1,300 −$42 (-3%)
Another crypto hack over $100m by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $1,042 $1,155 +$113 (+11%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,106 $1,132 +$26 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $993 $997 +$4 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $968 $964 −$4 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $953 $950 −$4 (-0%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 79¢ 78¢ $857 $856 −$1 (-0%)
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $789 $803 +$14 (+2%)
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No 69¢ 72¢ $724 $756 +$33 (+4%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by August 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $682 $730 +$48 (+7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $744 $729 −$15 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $579 +$15 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $51 +$171 +332%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $491 +$9 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $510 +$490 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 24 $3,948 −$51 -1%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 24 $1,112 +$24 +2%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $296 +$12 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $395 +$55 +14%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $246 −$47 -19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $302 +$112 +37%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will A Jun 23 $102 +$207 +202%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $80 −$20 -25%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $78 +$97 +124%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $186 −$181 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $103 −$102 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 20 $448 −$202 -45%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $117 +$83 +70%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $343 −$45 -13%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $1,026 +$196 +19%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 17 $289 +$45 +16%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 17 $248 +$34 +14%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $815 +$141 +17%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $130 +$70 +54%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $3,985 −$1,653 -42%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $177 +$3 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,922 +$38 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,283 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2,204 +$35 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $4,750 +$74 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $855 +$20 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,088 +$33 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9,927 +$245 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $358 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14,154 +$645 +5%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,114 +$65 +3%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $41 −$39 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $558 −$85 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $147 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 11 $33 −$32 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -96%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 11 $17 −$16 -96%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 11 $268 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 10 $485 +$23 +5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Jun 10 $743 +$60 +8%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $10,467 +$408 +4%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 10 $589 −$238 -40%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 10 $119 −$118 -99%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 10 $980 −$93 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 78¢ $796 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: BUY 22¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 SELL 44¢ $222 10h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 65¢ $354 12h
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $236 15h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $97 21h
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $47 21h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $4,081 21h
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $169 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 10¢ $51 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $1,545 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $11 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $15 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $89 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $85 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $2,188 42h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 71¢ $105 45h
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $326 45h
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $610 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 46¢ $102 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzeg BUY 17¢ $51 45h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,136 47h
Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? BUY No 60¢ $93 47h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,112 47h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 99¢ $671 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3,948 2d
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $139 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $183 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,718.26 · official $74,816.01 (match) · 3500 history records