trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 0% | -3.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 100% | 0% | -3.7% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +1.5% | -8.1% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 25 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 52% | 16% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 16% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 12% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 12% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 8% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $101 | $101 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $91 | $90 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $80 | $80 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? | No | 94¢ | 21¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-78%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nexus FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Jun 23 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 06 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 06 | $195 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 06 | $111 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 16 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 22? | Feb 02 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial? | Dec 22 | $2 | +$1 | +52% |
| Over $20M committed to the Paystream raise on MetaDAO? | Oct 23 | $4 | −$3 | -68% |
| Will Nasdaq (NDAQ) beat quarterly earnings? | Oct 23 | $2 | $0 | +18% |
| Will the Eagles beat the Browns by 5 or more points? | Oct 09 | $6 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? | Oct 09 | $6 | +$3 | +45% |
| Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jul 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Dogecoin Up or Down on July 5? | Jul 28 | $4 | +$3 | +71% |
| U.S. Federal judge impeached before July? | Jul 04 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX? | May 15 | $8 | −$5 | -66% |
| Will average US gas price hit $4 in February? | May 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | Jan 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024? | Jan 28 | $4 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? | Dec 26 | $621 | $0 | -0% |
| Will a Democrat win Washington DC Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? | Oct 16 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September? | Oct 16 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran strike on US military in August? | Sep 16 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| US bank failure before September? | Sep 16 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | Aug 08 | $226 | −$8 | -3% |