Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe95f…1d48 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,200 (-28%) realized −$2,196 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 34% −$3
sports 30% −$2,170
other 17% −$2
politics 17% −$1
world 1% −$26
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -84.8% -86.3% 10% 10% -0.3%
≤30d 26 -74.4% -76.8% 19% 15% -25.9%
≤90d 26 -74.4% -76.8% 19% 15% -25.9%
all 31 -65.6% -68.9% 16% 13% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.9% 13% -35.6%
10% -71.9% 13% -41.7%
15% -74.6% 3% -47.4%
20% -77.1% 3% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$89 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$2,196
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 19
History coverage254d
Avg bet$417
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Austria 92¢ 93¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 80¢ 76¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 22? Yes 88¢ 66¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 27? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 +$14 +30%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $35 +$26 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $22 +$7 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 03 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 17 $2,217 −$2,217 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 11 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Oct 11 $1,357 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $8 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Austria 92¢ $35 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $35 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $30 18d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 75¢ $22 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY Yes 0¢ $2 26d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $12 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 26d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 61¢ $2,217 124d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,352 253d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,353 253d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,353 253d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,354 253d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,354 253d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,356 253d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 99¢ $1,356 253d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 100¢ $1,357 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.84 · official $66.84 (match) · 35 history records