Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E9 0xe961…ef1b crypto 34 markets active 4h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,529 (+26%) realized +$12,252 · open +$8,277
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$2,310per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,014
7 days+$4,014
14 days+$4,014
30 days+$4,014
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$12,385
crypto 16% +$4,014
politics 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +58.2% +43.2% 42% 42% +18.8%
≤30d 26 +58.2% +43.2% 42% 42% +18.8%
≤90d 32 +45.7% +31.8% 44% 41% +4.7%
all 32 +45.7% +31.8% 44% 41% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.8% 41% +4.7%
10% ← realistic here +19.2% 31% -5.3%
15% +7.7% 31% -14.5%
20% -2.9% 28% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$992) neutral
Persistence
early +43% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,217 vs −$500 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$30,835
Realized+$12,252
Unrealized+$8,277
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2,310
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 51¢ 92¢ $10,138 $18,300 +$8,162 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 55¢ $12,420 $12,535 +$115 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $322 −$309 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $562 −$562 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $355 −$355 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $966 −$966 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $992 −$992 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$929 +798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $193 +$358 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $88 +$113 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $481 +$2,057 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $873 −$873 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $963 +$3,257 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $372 −$372 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $825 −$825 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1,424 +$3,832 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $527 +$854 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1,588 −$1,588 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $116 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $264 +$116 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $172 +$882 +514%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $4,714 +$959 +20%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $103 −$83 -81%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 03 $5,000 −$323 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 28 $2,504 −$157 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 28 $8,496 +$268 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $17,626 +$3,360 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $8,397 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $1,862 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $2,160 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,835.00 · official $30,835.00 (match) · 883 history records