Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe964…29f8 crypto 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,773 (+11%) realized +$1,609 · open +$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate76%118W / 37L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$445
7 days+$445
14 days+$449
30 days+$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$551
finance 10% +$955
other 4% +$170
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +112.7% +92.5% 100% 100% +92.5%
≤30d 34 -21.7% -29.1% 35% 24% +26.1%
≤90d 140 -2.9% -12.2% 80% 12% -0.6%
all 155 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 15% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 15% -0.6%
10% -21.7% 11% -10.1%
15% -29.2% 8% -18.8%
20% -36.2% 6% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$603
Realized+$1,609
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses118 / 37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)155 / 158
History coverage91d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 59¢ 81¢ $191 $263 +$72 (+38%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 51¢ 93¢ $115 $209 +$94 (+82%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $133 $131 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $394 +$445 +113%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 10 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5? Jun 06 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $202 +$67 +33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $606 −$88 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 21? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 21? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 04 $62 −$11 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 25? Jun 04 $122 −$113 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$45 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 04 $31 +$7 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 04 $73 +$43 +59%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $148 +$39 +26%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $206 +$122 +60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $511 +$600 +117%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 1? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 1? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April? May 01 $300 +$145 +48%
Will BNB reach $700 in April? May 01 $130 +$18 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 29? Apr 30 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 29? Apr 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 27? Apr 28 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 27? Apr 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on April 26? Apr 26 $100 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 26? Apr 26 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 25? Apr 25 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 96¢ $839 45h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL No 79¢ $64 10d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 72¢ $24 14d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 72¢ $35 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5? BUY No 95¢ $40 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 51¢ $119 14d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 45¢ $95 14d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 5? BUY No 95¢ $17 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? SELL No 98¢ $269 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 45¢ $55 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? BUY No 73¢ $137 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? BUY No 73¢ $65 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 44¢ $339 15d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 65¢ $518 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.33 · official $603.33 (match) · 365 history records