Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E9 0xe964…dc68 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$16
politics 15% −$5
sports 5% +$39
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 +3.0% -6.8% 9% 8% -9.5%
all 113 +3.0% -6.8% 9% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 8% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 8% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×12.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage91d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $322 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $408 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $531 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $265 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $248 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $249 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $454 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $249 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $266 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $267 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $456 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $685 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $464 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $489 −$2 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $448 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $45 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $94 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $49 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $49 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $46 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $46 17d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $35 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $43 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.83 · official $199.83 (match) · 356 history records