Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe96d…a747 other 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$134 · open −$45
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate68%165W / 77L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$32
other 21% +$89
sports 13% +$34
economics 9% +$1
politics 6% +$25
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 13% -9.2%
≤30d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 84 -1.2% -10.6% 49% 13% -9.2%
all 242 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 14% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 8% -17.1%
15% -26.2% 5% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$2,439
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses165 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions80
Markets (closed)242 / 322
History coverage122d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 92¢ $205 $232 +$27 (+13%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $167 $211 +$45 (+27%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $178 $172 −$6 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $128 $135 +$8 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $92 $124 +$32 (+34%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 86¢ 92¢ $111 $120 +$8 (+8%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $77 $80 +$3 (+4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 81¢ 80¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Yes 71¢ 72¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 14¢ $33 $42 +$9 (+27%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 50¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $21 $30 +$9 (+43%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 46¢ 54¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 67¢ 100¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+50%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $81 +$4 +5%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 +7%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $14 +$19 +139%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$4 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $344 +$8 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $43 −$19 -43%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $47 +$23 +50%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$4 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $172 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $260 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $534 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $994 +$1 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $48 −$16 -33%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $24 +$6 +28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $37 $0 -1%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $40 −$5 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +35%
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 +1%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 2m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 2m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 2m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 8m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 8m
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 13m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 13m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 15m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 16m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 44m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 45m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 50m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 100¢ $133 55m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,438.60 · official $2,437.94 (match) · 3072 history records