Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe96e…e7bb world 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% $0
other 11% +$2
sports 6% −$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
all 27 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage468d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $77 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? May 06 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 3? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 27 $10 $0 +2%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 27 $2 $0 -20%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +3%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $14 $0 -1%
Stonehill vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Mar 04 $14 −$1 -4%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $29 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $36 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $30 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $8 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $36 8d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 95¢ $1 349d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records