Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe96f…22a2 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$23
sports 39% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.7%
all 12 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $237 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $467 −$5 -1%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $275 −$19 -7%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $22 $0 -0%
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 25 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $23 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 24 $220 +$2 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $229 −$2 -1%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 24 $135 −$3 -2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $470 −$1 -0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $145 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? SELL No 95¢ $237 1h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 95¢ $237 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? SELL No 92¢ $230 1h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 52¢ $256 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $275 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $232 7h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? SELL No 93¢ $22 8h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? SELL No 33¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $22 8h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY No 33¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? SELL No 93¢ $232 8h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 94¢ $235 8h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 42¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 57¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 57¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 57¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? SELL No 89¢ $222 13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY No 88¢ $220 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL Sharks 57¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 43¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $11 13h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 57¢ $7 13h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL No 95¢ $212 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL No 95¢ $10 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? SELL No 96¢ $6 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $229 20h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North SELL Alliance Guardians 27¢ $132 22h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Alliance Guardians 27¢ $135 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records