Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E9 0xe976…8b73 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,833 (-3%) realized −$1,944 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate80%103W / 26L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days−$1,638
14 days−$687
30 days−$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$2,260
sports 11% +$532
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.5% -19.9% 72% 39% -24.3%
≤30d 52 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 33% -10.6%
≤90d 88 -7.6% -16.4% 76% 38% -17.8%
all 129 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 46% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 46% -12.1%
10% -19.6% 18% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 10% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$346 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$1,011
Realized−$1,944
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses103 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage252d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 85¢ 96¢ $900 $1,011 +$111 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $748 +$158 +21%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $691 +$50 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $593 +$101 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $551 +$40 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $472 +$81 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $431 +$42 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $376 +$55 +15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $351 +$22 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $321 +$20 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $291 −$288 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $217 +$74 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $301 +$25 +8%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $392 +$101 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,009 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,006 +$102 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $931 +$28 +3%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $826 +$50 +6%
Will Turkiye win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $762 +$63 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 09 $404 +$184 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Spread: Italy (-2.5) Jun 07 $1,001 +$39 +4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,001 +$36 +4%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1,003 +$94 +9%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,002 +$64 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $400 +$14 +4%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $401 +$25 +6%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1,004 +$146 +14%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $400 +$9 +2%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $401 +$34 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $403 −$400 -99%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $400 +$8 +2%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $400 +$10 +3%
Spread: Poland (-2.5) Jun 01 $401 +$25 +6%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $302 +$72 +24%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 31 $401 +$29 +7%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Burundi win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $395 +$20 +5%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $401 −$400 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $303 +$126 +42%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $502 +$73 +14%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $402 +$58 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $904 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $906 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $748 6h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $691 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $593 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $551 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $472 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $431 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $376 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $351 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $321 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $291 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $217 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $301 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $100 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $200 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $493 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 79¢ $392 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $1,005 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,189 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $1,005 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 71¢ $1,005 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $1,009 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 90¢ $1,108 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1,006 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 97¢ $931 9d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 89¢ $1,003 9d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 94¢ $826 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.18 · official $1,018.06 (match) · 271 history records