Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe977…fcd8 other 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,943 (+4%) realized +$1,947 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%319W / 159L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,669
sports 9% +$272
world 3% +$37
finance 1% −$45
economics 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -30.4% -37.0% 38% 23% -7.0%
≤30d 13 -30.4% -37.0% 38% 23% -7.0%
≤90d 21 +15.2% +4.2% 57% 43% +10.8%
all 478 +5.7% -4.3% 67% 50% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% -6.2%
10% -13.5% 37% -15.2%
15% -21.8% 27% -23.4%
20% -29.5% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$1,947
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses319 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)478 / 481
History coverage294d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 33¢ 32¢ $278 $273 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 +$55 +55%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $102 +$131 +129%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $46 −$45 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $31 −$28 -90%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 27 $405 −$39 -10%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $409 −$9 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $410 +$14 +3%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $410 −$10 -2%
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $406 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $404 +$51 +13%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $103 +$104 +101%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $53 +$190 +357%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $109 +$13 +12%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $118 +$82 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$238 +238%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Swansea City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 03 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $50 +$28 +56%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Feb 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $49 +$29 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $133 +$16 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Sc Feb 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Feb 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $130 +$16 +12%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $99 +$31 +32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $101 +$35 +35%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $108 +$27 +25%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-04? Feb 04 $100 +$32 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 03 $109 +$22 +20%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $120 +$24 +20%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $114 +$6 +5%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $106 +$8 +8%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jan 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $100 +$117 +117%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16? Jan 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-14? Jan 15 $101 +$79 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $1 6m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $50 9m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $10 11m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $4 11m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $2 11m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $5 14m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $5 15m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $2 16m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $3 17m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $8 28m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $10 29m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 33¢ $385 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 33¢ $382 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $378 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $46 9h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 34¢ $36 9h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $36 9h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 9h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 3¢ $3 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 28¢ $31 10h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $345 10h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $405 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $398 20h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 20h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 20h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $409 21h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs BUY 13¢ $24 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 18¢ $20 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 18¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.49 · official $273.49 (match) · 1030 history records