Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe982…ee11 sports 38 markets active 4d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-17%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1
other 38% −$2
crypto 16% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -30.3% -37.0% 33% 33% -36.0%
≤30d 11 -47.0% -52.1% 27% 27% -56.2%
≤90d 25 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 36% -31.8%
all 38 -28.5% -35.3% 42% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 42% -25.0%
10% -41.5% 39% -32.2%
15% -47.1% 39% -38.8%
20% -52.3% 32% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $2 +$3 +148%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A May 31 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $5 +$3 +52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $4 +$3 +65%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - China Evolution Series Mar 20 $2 +$1 +44%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Mar 20 $2 +$1 +44%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution S Mar 19 $3 +$2 +61%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Ac Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Seri Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $2 +$2 +96%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Valorant: Mir Gaming vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Mar 13 $1 $0 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $4 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics $1 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 34¢ $1 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 70¢ $1 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 30¢ $2 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $1 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $0 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 93¢ $1 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 60¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 36¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 33¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 20¢ $1 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $1 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 17¢ $1 12d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY XLG Gaming 28¢ $1 12d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 18d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Nova Esports (BO5) - China Evolution Series A BUY Nova Esports 60¢ $1 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 18d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 46d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 47d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 82¢ $5 48d
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 49d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records