Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe984…ef76 sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%27W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
politics 24% −$3
other 19% −$2
economics 8% −$1
culture 7% −$3
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 191 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses27 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage167d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $203 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $46 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $123 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 08 $279 −$2 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $146 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $36 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $36 9h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 13d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $36 20d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $36 33d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $37 34d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $34 92d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $35 93d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $38 93d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $3 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $3 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $7 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $5 93d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $18 93d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $42 93d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $42 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $37 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $37 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $38 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $38 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 94d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 94d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 807 history records