Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe986…860d crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$206 (-2%) realized −$206 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%172W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$232
14 days−$230
30 days−$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -1.8% -11.2% 81% 3% -11.7%
≤30d 200 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 2% -11.6%
≤90d 200 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 2% -11.6%
all 200 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 2% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 0% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses172 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage19d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$16 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$24 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$33 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $78 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$35 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $109 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $119 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $128 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $124 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $134 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $128 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $116 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $114 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $109 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $108 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $115 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $122 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $121 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $117 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $80 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 736 history records