Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe987…f0e1 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2572 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38,086 (+14%) realized +$43,224 · open −$5,138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 42L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,884per market
Trades / day2571.9pace
Fees−$416est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$99,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$45,443
sports 9% +$1,803
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2572 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -53.2% -57.6% 29% 27% -10.2%
≤30d 59 -53.2% -57.6% 29% 27% -10.2%
≤90d 59 -53.2% -57.6% 29% 27% -10.2%
all 59 -53.2% -57.6% 29% 27% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2571.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 27% -10.2%
10% -61.7% 10% -18.8%
15% ← realistic here -65.4% 10% -26.6%
20% -68.8% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$5,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
74.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,484 vs −$1,448 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99,052
Realized+$43,224
Unrealized−$5,138
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$416
Open positions16
Markets (closed)59 / 47
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$5,884
Trades / day2571.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 88¢ 100¢ $22,541 $25,540 +$3,000 (+13%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? No 87¢ 100¢ $20,039 $22,988 +$2,949 (+15%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? No 86¢ 100¢ $8,600 $9,995 +$1,395 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $8,960 $9,165 +$205 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $8,670 $8,635 −$35 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $8,150 $8,155 +$5 (+0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 60¢ $5,900 $5,950 +$50 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 41¢ 50¢ $4,100 $4,950 +$850 (+21%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $3,265 $3,290 +$25 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $98 $353 +$255 (+261%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $10,400 $10 −$10,390 (-100%)
Will Mexico finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 73¢ 74¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $2,600 $5 −$2,595 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $764 $5 −$759 (-99%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$93 (-99%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5,500 −$5,500 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $11,943 −$11,943 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $7,220 −$7,220 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $18,466 −$18,466 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $339 −$339 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $362 −$362 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 17 $453 −$453 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $12,913 +$1,123 +9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,040 −$28 -3%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,462 +$1,538 +105%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8,700 +$1,300 +15%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $17,899 +$2,100 +12%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $23,239 +$4,753 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,400 +$7,600 +317%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,750 +$8,250 +122%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1,618 −$1,618 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8,900 +$1,100 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8,300 +$1,700 +20%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $8,292 +$1,025 +12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $545 −$541 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,532 −$1,500 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2,113 +$402 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8,500 +$1,500 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8,800 +$1,200 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 18m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $5,900 27m
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $261 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $903 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 87¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99,051.66 · official $99,051.66 (match) · 3500 history records