Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E9 0xe988…e4b5 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,188 (-19%) realized −$1,169 · open −$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip

Net edge-63%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$629per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$36est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$2,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-59.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-55.2%	-59.4%	33%	33%	-37.3%
≤30d	6	-55.2%	-59.4%	33%	33%	-37.3%
≤90d	6	-55.2%	-59.4%	33%	33%	-37.3%
all	6	-55.2%	-59.4%	33%	33%	-37.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.4%	33%	-37.3%
10%	-63.3%	17%	-43.3%
15%	-66.9%	17%	-48.8%
20%	-70.1%	0%	-53.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$348 vs −$475 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.37 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$2,281

Realized−$1,169

Unrealized−$19

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$36

Open positions4

Markets (closed)6 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$629

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$1,000	$1,007	+$7 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$500	$492	−$8 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$500	$490	−$10 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$300	$292	−$8 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,005	+$214	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,010	+$483	+48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 16	$307	−$300	-98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$511	−$500	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,013	−$1,000	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,007	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$307	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$510	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$511	1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$307	23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$1,005	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,010	23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$511	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,013	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,281.13 · official $2,281.13 (match) · 12 history records