Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E9 0xe98a…edff sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$469 (+17%) realized +$732 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$14
sports 14% +$258
tech 3% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +100.8% +81.7% 38% 38% +73.4%
≤30d 8 +100.8% +81.7% 38% 38% +73.4%
≤90d 8 +100.8% +81.7% 38% 38% +73.4%
all 8 +100.8% +81.7% 38% 38% +73.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.7% 38% +73.4%
10% +64.3% 38% +56.8%
15% +48.4% 38% +41.7%
20% +33.9% 38% +27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$251 vs −$57 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,838
Realized+$732
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,101 $1,838 −$263 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $145 +$286 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$186 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$290 +564%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $56 −$54 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $32 +$176 +545%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $480 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,175 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $344 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $165 13h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 29¢ $18 43h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $131 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $41 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $65 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $82 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $145 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 4¢ $56 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 1¢ $13 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $201 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $24 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $40 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $35 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,838.24 · official $1,838.24 (match) · 24 history records