Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E9 0xe98c…2be5 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$136 (-0%) realized −$135 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%99W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$50
politics 2% −$102
crypto 2% +$5
economics 1% +$2
sports 0% +$9
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 109 +3.0% -6.8% 91% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 12% -9.7%
10% -15.7% 7% -18.4%
15% -23.9% 6% -26.3%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses99 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage691d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BNB reach $800 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 25-31? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 20 $95 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1? Mar 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in November? Dec 06 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Google reach $380 in November? Dec 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 06 $83 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $93 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $117 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Nov 24 $134 +$1 +1%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 26 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Oct 26 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 26 $30 +$2 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 26 $30 +$2 +8%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5) Oct 26 $30 −$1 -2%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-18? Oct 23 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Los Heretics (BO5) Oct 23 $10 +$4 +39%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Oct 23 $5 +$13 +266%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Oct 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election? Oct 18 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $8 +$3 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs PSG Talon (BO1) Oct 18 $10 +$1 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) Oct 18 $8 +$4 +45%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Oct 18 $8 +$5 +62%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 18 $8 +$5 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $8 +$5 +67%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $134 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 08 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 08 $131 +$1 +0%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election? Jun 06 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the Green Party win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election May 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Apr 09 $150 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 15 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Feb 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Holly Cairns be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Feb 09 $113 $0 +0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BNB reach $800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $94 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $95 93d
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $95 114d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $96 157d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $96 196d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $83 209d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in November? BUY No 97¢ $24 209d
Will Google reach $380 in November? BUY No 100¢ $62 209d
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? BUY No 100¢ $68 209d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $117 237d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5) SELL Karmine Corp Blue 79¢ $29 237d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $93 241d
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $10 241d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 86¢ $10 241d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics (BO5) BUY Karmine Corp Blue 81¢ $30 241d
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) BUY T1 93¢ $30 241d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) BUY Bilibili Gaming 93¢ $30 241d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 98¢ $6 245d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 100¢ $10 245d
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 99¢ $10 245d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 100¢ $10 245d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 97¢ $10 245d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 88¢ $10 245d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? BUY No 89¢ $10 245d
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Los Heretics (BO5) BUY Los Heretics 72¢ $10 245d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) BUY Karmine Corp Blue 27¢ $5 245d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs PSG Talon (BO3) BUY PSG Talon 78¢ $10 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.37 · official $54.37 (match) · 266 history records