Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe991…48b1 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,479 (-10%) realized −$2,497 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$364est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,018now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,472
7 days−$3,996
14 days−$2,812
30 days−$2,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,292
other 19% −$1,029
world 4% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -30.8% -37.4% 31% 31% -25.5%
≤30d 68 -23.5% -30.7% 35% 35% -20.2%
≤90d 68 -23.5% -30.7% 35% 35% -20.2%
all 68 -23.5% -30.7% 35% 35% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 35% -20.2%
10% -37.4% 34% -27.8%
15% -43.4% 32% -34.8%
20% -49.0% 26% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$506) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$239 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,018
Realized−$2,497
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$364
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 73
History coverage9d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $1,018 +$18 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $255 −$156 -61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $255 −$174 -68%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$30 +29%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $153 −$153 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $406 −$406 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $407 −$407 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $508 −$508 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $101 −$77 -76%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $102 +$47 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 −$46 -46%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $609 +$461 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $709 +$451 +64%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $515 −$195 -38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $405 +$283 +70%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 +$385 +76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $305 −$305 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$407 -40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $506 +$314 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$41 +14%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $822 −$111 -13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$32 -62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 +$377 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 −$35 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $204 −$110 -54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,020 −$472 -46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$55 -36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $305 +$308 +101%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $812 −$515 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $808 +$334 +41%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,013 −$411 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $99 50m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $81 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $255 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 36¢ $255 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $132 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Brazil 13¢ $24 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 47¢ $149 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 21¢ $55 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $699 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 4h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $371 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $101 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 56¢ $101 4h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $102 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $406 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $398 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs BUY 11¢ $103 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 25h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $146 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 86¢ $153 28h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $405 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $407 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,018.40 · official $1,018.40 (match) · 193 history records