Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E9 0xe992…82f1 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$1
other 16% −$1
sports 16% +$1
crypto 12% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.5%
all 24 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage177d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $349 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $234 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $234 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $234 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $234 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $233 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $458 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $234 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $234 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $221 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 14h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 25d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 35d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $117 35d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $117 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $115 38d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $115 41d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $115 42d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $115 46d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $115 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $116 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $116 65d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $116 68d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $116 68d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 85d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 86d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $234 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $234 93d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $234 97d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $234 98d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 100d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 100d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $234 102d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $234 102d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $234 105d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $21 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records